Sunday, March 16, 2008

Gold rush

There's a gold rush going on. Here's a comment from Hans Lysglimt. (In case you get the impression he's against gold, here's another interesting comment.)

One of the things it took me a while to learn is that there's a difference between investing and speculation. Investing is well-considered and happens over decades. Speculating is not much different than gambling. The main difference is that in gambling, the randomness factor and the rule that the house always wins is much more out in the open. And yet even in gambling you'll see lots and lots of people who think that their god-given luck or their "system" will allow them to beat the house.

Maybe sometimes they do. But do they walk away then? No, because gambling is addictive. And similarly, the ones who win in speculating are the dealers. They take a couple of percent off each trade while the speculators keep chasing the Prize around, trying to Time The Market.

It might be fun, but don't play with money you can't afford to lose, because even the best speculators in the world, who spend all their time studying markets and companies, have lost money, and big.

6 comments:

Monsieur Beep! said...

See? Jim Rodgers and Warren Buffett are investors, and I think they're not having sleepless nights just now, at "recession" time.
Investing is an art, like having a business; whereas speculation is, well, gambling, making the brokers smile.

Eolake Stobblehouse said...

"investors, and I think they're not having sleepless nights just now, at "recession" time."

Indeed. For an investor, a low market is not a crisis, it's a buying opportunity.

Anonymous said...

Here's an educated comment on the subject: What the Price of Gold Is Telling Us.

Pascal [P-04referent] said...

"For an investor, a low market is not a crisis, it's a buying opportunity."

In a comic about the life of Uncle Scrooge, one image shows him with a wheelbarrow, buying for near nothing whole companies on the Wall Street Black Thursday the day the 1930's crisis started...

Eolake Stobblehouse said...

Really? I must have missed that one.

I remember the classic one where a tornado distributed all his money to everybody. In a couple months he'd earned it all back because he was the only one who kept working. Brill.

Pascal [P-04referent] said...

I think it was in the series made by Keno Don Rosa, where he compiled all the tips and details ever mentioned by Carl Barks.
I'm such a fan of Uncle Scrooge, that my friends nicknamed me "Picsou". That's his french name.
In another story, he's court-ordered to exchange all his money for a specially made trillion dollar bill, because he's got all the money and the economy has stopped from lack of currency. Then HE can't spend any money to buy even a sandwich, because nobody has the change for his bill... but when the country's economy restarts his money bin is soon full again. :-)