Here's another good Stross article about the ebook market.
In the pre-internet dark age, there was a subculture of folks who would get their hands on books and pass them around and encourage people to read them for free, rather than buying their own copies. Much like today's ebook pirates, in terms of the what they did (with one or two minor differences). There was a closely-related subculture who would actually sell copies of books without paying the authors a penny in royalties, too.
We have a technical term for such people: we call them "librarians" and "second-hand bookstore owners".
He echos some of those things which I've been saying, to wit that $20 for an ebook is nuts, and it's one of the hindrances for the ebook market to take off. (Meanwhile the publishers are fighting Amazon's $10 ebooks tooth and claw.)
Only I wouldn't go so far as saying it's the main hindrance. I think sheer force of habit, and lacking technology is more important. We need something as comfortable as a book and more flexible, and easy buying.
And despite what he says, that the screen issue is clearly no problem, since we spend hours daily using screens, I think it is. Yes we do, but it's under protest. Me, I am strangely compelled to read a lot on the web, it's addictive... but when we arrive at lengths over a few screen heights, I get uncomfortable, partly the screen and partly the chair, meant for work not reading.
I guess it's a one-word argument really: "iTunes". I think they are the world's biggest music retailer now. And obviously the iBookstore part of the iPad experience is Apple's attempt at making this happen with ebooks. I think it has a shot of working, especially if Stevie can strong-arm/sweet-talk the publishers like he did with the music biz.
Doctorow gets it better, screen reading tends to be scattered. (Recommended article.)
Stross makes an error though:
[...] the typical dead-tree book has, over its life cycle, an average of four readers. Moreover, sell-through in paper is around 50-60%; that is, for every book sold to a customer, 0.8 to 1.0 other books end up being returned or pulped. So the real figure is more like ten readers per book actually printed by the publisher.
He means "two readers", not ten, if we follow his math. They print 100 books, sell 50, and each of those has 4 readers, that's 200 readers per 100 printed books.
Also I don't see why he thinks that we need a $20 ebook reader for that market to take off. Nobody ever made a $50 PC, and last I heard, that market has been pretty profitable overall.
I do however agree with his general drift, as in:
Historically, only 25% of readers paid into the authors revenue stream. A 75% piracy rate may therefore be seen as a continuation of business as usual.
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4 comments:
Just a personal opinion, but I think the main stumbling block to the eBook market taking off, or growing at all, is the simple fact that people no longer read books in any great numbers. It may just be a (lack of) time element, or maybe a preference for TV, computer games, or mooching about on here (the web) ... or maybe interacting with other people ... you know, socialising! :-)
In general peoples lives just seem so much busier.
As a source of reference, books seem to be a poor option if you have the internet available in most cases.
I'm just speculating here, but I would guess that many, many books are bought as gifts at Christmas and birthdays (it can be an easy option!) ... but you are not going to buy an eBook for someone unless they already have a reader, which is extremely unlikely in the case of a casual book-reader.
I'm also taking a wild guess here, but I would imagine a scenario with eBooks that we currently have with music and films. Without wishing to get into the morality or legality of it, they can be downloaded free by anyone, from many, many sources, and I see no reasom at all why this would not become more wide-spread with eBooks (which are already available by these means anyway!)
Personally, although I embrace technology, I love books (and have no interest in a reader) ... I'm currently sat here surrounded by shelves containing several hundred books ... and four PCs with all their ancilliary bits and pieces ... There again, I rarely watch TV! :-)
One of the main reasons ebooks are having trouble is that print publishers are fighting them tooth and claw. Here are two good pages on the subject:
http://dearauthor.com/wordpress/2010/02/07/my-ebook-resolution-just-saying-no-to-the-ebook-tax/
(My comment is #53)
and the same blogger's round-up of industry items on the subject:
http://dearauthor.com/wordpress/2010/02/05/friday-midday-links-2/
Thank you very much. I'll check out the links.
Also I don't see why he thinks that we need a $20 ebook reader for that market to take off. Nobody ever made a $50 PC, and last I heard, that market has been pretty profitable overall.
Probably only because there is no real alternative to the personal computer, whereas the alternative to an ebook reader is...a book.
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