Tuesday, October 14, 2008

This American Life radio show on money

This American Life on Chicago Public Radio has two episodes online about trying to understand the credit crisis.
This one and this one. (Click "full episode" on the left.)
One of the official loan products is (surely that's "was") a "NINA" loan. It means "no income no assets". And this title did not set off any alarm bells?

I've only heard some of the first one yet, but it came warmly recommended, and so far it does seem highly interesting. Big concepts and clear concepts.
Update: brilliant stuff, do listen in. They interview a guy who worked in this mortgage debt chain, and he made around $70,000. Per month!


House prices will drop 40% by 2010, says report.
"The average price of a house in the UK will not climb back to its 2007 peak until 2023, a leading academic said today."
... OK, I'm sorry, but I have to say this in public at least once: Told Ya So!
I've been saying since around 2003 that a housing crash was coming. It was delayed due to the new high-risk lending, and it has become much worse because of that. But even without any knowledge of technical matters, it was just obvious to me that house prices can't continue to climb ten percent year over year indefinitely.
And if you look at the long-trend graph, the last crash had prices falling for six years before they started to recover. So I'm not planning any house purchases until 2012 at the earliest.

"Clare said his survey was "very bad news" for anyone who bought a house in the UK last summer and predicted that negative equity would become a big feature of "our economic landscape for years to come".
However, Clare thinks this correction will make UK properties affordable again."

By the way, the same article says that UK inflation is expected to fall now, maybe even become deflation. Which is good news to me, but unexpected. Does anybody know why this would be so?

For all those who forgot that house prices had fallen before, be reminded by this Spitting Image spoof song (from the early nineties?).

1 comment:

ttl said...

If you want to understand the cause of the American financial crises, and what's ahead, I recommend watching the TV interviews with Peter Schiff. They are often kind of entertaining, too.