It's clear that electronic publishing will more or less kill off paper publishing. The questions are, how soon? (Five years or thirty?) How sudden will it be? (A long stretched-out process or one with a collapse at some point?) And how complete will it be? (Will there still be a niche market for paper books/mags in fifty years?)
Ten years ago I told my friend the newspapershop owner: are you sure you'll have a business for life in this store? Soon there will come... and here I described a device just like the iPad. OK, it's still a little to small, a little too heavy, a little too expensive, but these things have a way of changing.
Sure, some people will still want things on paper for decades to come, mostly from force of habit, but printing and distribution costs money. The fewer of these people there are, the more expensive their books will become, and the more expensive books become, the fewer people will buy paper books and magazines... you see where this is going.
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Related article.
Some books can't and won't be digital-only. Books of special importance, like religious books, and books which rely on special physical properties, special paper, special ink, fold-outs... to make an easthetic or functional point.
The author shows this metalic ink as an example:
And he also talks about Scott McCloud's "infinite canvas":
23 comments:
stackpole says 2012 or 2013 if the growth of ebook sales continues at the current speed. Printed book sales might lack the numbers needed to ensure a cycle of production.
i'm sort of glad to contribute to this... As a small publisher' my ebook to print sale ratio is already 10 to 1.
Ebooks have been around long enough already, and things like Kindle or the ipad aren't revolutionary and won't attract enough people. Plus most people, not just for nostalgic reasons, will always prefer an actual physical book to an electronic version. You will of course see the end of magazines and newspapers in print form. Not books, though.
the ebook readers are expensive. Bring the kindle to $99 and you'll see.
The question is, how many people will still prefer print books and how much will they be willing to pay for a copy. At some point, that won't be enough to justify a print run.
It also depends on how fast schools adopt, at least partially, ebook readers. Once new generations grow up with the idea that the ebook is lighter, cheaper, searchable etc why should they still prefer the heavier, space-consuming, more expensive, non searchable printed books?
The feeling of love people have for paper books comes from the content. If you take the print out of them, all that's left is dead trees.
Actually, one of my "art projects to do before I die" is production of handmade, one-of-a-kind books on demand. Something like scrapbooks, but done on spec by an artist with his own personal annotations, sketches etc. On handmade paper. With photography, etching, finger painting, watercolors etc. Bespoke written content.
Pricing in the low hundreds of dollars/euros/pounds if anyone is interested :-)
I've ideas of something similar.
An Australian friend of mine are actually making such things.
A paper print needs neither a power source to read, nor buying an arm-and-leg-costing device.
Don't under-estimate the potential of the Third World to remain a few centuries behind!
In countries where the daily wage is around one or two dollars... who's going to pay a year's salary to read the news?
OK, so most places in Africa now have cellphones. But these people still haven't seen a computer, ever. It's just that cellphones are more convenient than smoke signals or yelling across valleys... like my ancestors in Northern Lebanon!
There's a new business in Africa, maybe you haven't heard: "Cellphone battery recharging". No fib!
And YOU try making a toy airplane out of an ALDITCS! These things fly like a steam iron...
Make mine paper
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The papyrus book is a great medium. The problem comes from people using it for mediocre writings, causing trees to be killed for no good reason.
But take something like The Red Book which it would be sacrilegious to publish electronically. In fact, many see it as sacrilegious that it was published at all.
I think the proper course of action is to start producing hand written singular books, and price them so that only Russian oligarchs can afford them. And then refuse to sell even to them.
Who decides what is fit to print or not? A man's mediocrity is another man's greatness. I read pulp books and I think they are an expression of mankind's genius; although they were considered worse than rubbish by the literary critics of their times.
With digital editions, all you have to do is to delete a file if you think the product is mediocre and is wasting your disk space.
Eo,
have you got a link for the Australians? I'm curious
I'll see if I can find a site.
"Who decides what is fit to print or not?"
Same as always: the publisher, and then the market.
Only now we have the advantage that it can also be the other way around. A big hit in ebooks will probably also make a profit on paper (within the next couple decades at least).
well the real advantage IMHO is that you can be a publisher with no real upfront costs. The money barrier was torn down. A poor author can self publish and make a buck.
When I started Ganesha Games (www.ganeshagames.net) I was on the dole but I had nothing to lose. Three years later, I'm a (minor but successful) niche publisher in the wargaming area, and I can live off my hobby and creative ideas.
Congrats.
That's my story too, and many years ago I wrote an email to Tim Berners-Lee thanking him for inventing the Web and making it public and free.
The feeling of love people have for paper books comes from the content. If you take the print out of them, all that's left is dead trees.
That's definitely not true. Bibliophilia. There are many people who love not just the content but the book itself, and collect them, paying many thousands (or sometimes a lot more) for first edition copies. Even people who can't afford expensive editions often like the look and feel of real books, seeing them lined up on a shelve, etc. Plus it's one of the things white people like. What's the point of reading all those books if people can't see them on your shelves when they come over? ;-)
Bring the kindle to $99 and you'll see.
It will have to come down a lot more than that. And the technology will have to improve a lot still. It's not that impressive in its current form. Both the ipad and kindle are heavy, expensive, breakable, and of course require power.
Who decides what is fit to print or not?
As with most things, this is decided collectively by society and can change over time.
A poor author can self publish and make a buck.
I can't see how this is a good thing. Even Doogie Howser would be stumped by that one.
"'A poor author can self publish and make a buck.'
I can't see how this is a good thing."
You can't? Seriously?
It's freedom, dude, GG and I are doing our own thing from our own home and having fun, instead of working in somebody else's office, according to their rules and schedules.
Dave
to say that the kindle is heavy is nonsensical. Do you mean that the 40+ books that currently reside in my kindle would be lighter in paper form?
It can be broken. Well, so what? Do you need to read while driving, or skydiving, or doing other dangerous activities? Crash tests have shown that you can drop a kindle on the floor and it survives. Mind you, a hardbound book I own broke that way.
$99 would be too much? well, the market (and Amazon) will decide. Eventually, like we have $19.00 cell phones, we could have a cheaper ebook reader.
It has to improve? yes, color and size are still lacking (unless you count the Kindle DX which is expensive even for my taste) but will probably be here in a couple of years. Color epaper is already in the prototype stage (well, it works-- I think it needs more funding than research at this stage).
They require power, you say. Well, my kindle gives me about 10 days of reading before its charge runs out, and can be charged very fast. I can't see why the energy requirement is such a hassle. It's a small tradeoff for being able to carry your whole library in your bag, I think.
The idea that only rich people should be published authors or publishers is so wrong that I hope you are just joking. Maybe you'd like to go back to the times when only the rich could afford being writers.
Oh and about the kindle being expensive: I think I said it more times, if you are serious about reading, the kindle will probably pay itself back in less than one year and save you money. I read 4-8 books a month. Let's say an average of 5 just to keep the calculations simple. Buying digital editions, I pay from 0 to $5 per book (I do not buy ebooks on Amazon. there are cheaper catalogues, at least for the stuff I read). If I were to read the same titles in paper, I'd be spending at least $10-14 per book, plus shipping, plus customs fees. And I'd have to wait. With the kinlde, if I want to read the last issue of Destroyer (a beloved action series of mine) all I need to do is to connect to fictionwise.com and be reading in less than a minute. Try to do that with paper books.
Continuing my calculations, in one year I have spent maybe an average of 3 bucks per title, and I have read let's say (5 x 12)= 60 books, for a total of 180 dollars.
Many, many titles I have found for free as their copyright lapsed and they are into the public domain.
The print equivalent of these (mostly American) books, living in Italy, would have costed about 15-20 dolars a book. With aa conservative $16 per book, $16 x 60= 960 dollars.
960 dollars minus 180 which I have actually spent is 780. Even counting the 290 dollars that the kindle costed me, I have saved enough money... to buy an ipad! :-)
Plus, ebooks are much easier to smuggle and hide than printed copies in non democrattic countries where certain subjects may well be forbidden. I think the real power of the internet as a human relationship platform and as an eye opener for those who live under oppression (e.g. Communist China, most Islamic countries)may be fully realized with the superfast, super portable sharing of information possible with ebooks.
By poor I thought you meant poor quality, not having no money. The technology will allow more bad writers to cheaply self-publish their bad novels.
to say that the kindle is heavy is nonsensical. Do you mean that the 40+ books that currently reside in my kindle would be lighter in paper form?
I might carry around one or two at a time. Most of the time my reading is done at home, so I let my book shelves do the holding for me, as people have done for centuries. The idea that it's a good thing, or even a necessary thing, to be able to carry around a whole library with you...well, now, that's nonsensical. The electronic form works for magazines, newspapers, and technical books. Students probably won't benefit, as the electronic form of a textbook will in the future be as overpriced as the print versions today.
They require power, you say. Well, my kindle gives me about 10 days of reading before its charge runs out, and can be charged very fast.
Printed material requires no power at all, and no charging time.
I can't see why the energy requirement is such a hassle.
Charging anything is a hassle.
It's a small tradeoff for being able to carry your whole library in your bag, I think.
No one has yet made a persuasive argument for the necessity of carrying your whole library around. No one has yet come close.
The idea that only rich people should be published authors or publishers is so wrong that I hope you are just joking.
This must be a joke, because clearly I didn't say anything like that.
Maybe you'd like to go back to the times when only the rich could afford being writers.
The quality would be better, but again I didn't say that anything like that.
the kindle will probably pay itself back in less than one year and save you money.
I would only want in electronic form books I don't really care about, or technical materials that might be soon out of date. Otherwise I'd prefer to have a real book.
If I were to read the same titles in paper, I'd be spending at least $10-14 per book, plus shipping, plus customs fees.
Customs fees are obviously not a problem. There are few things not available through Amazon here in the U.S. Maybe it is different in other countries. In the UK everything costs more anyway. Maybe a European perspective is different. Here, ordering enough for free shipping, in order to have several months' supply of reading material, is standard for me. Plus I don't have to read it on some lame electronic device, but get real, physical pages to turn. No charging it up, no relying on technology, no being bound to them by changing formats, etc.
With the kinlde, if I want to read the last issue of Destroyer (a beloved action series of mine) all I need to do is to connect to fictionwise.com and be reading in less than a minute. Try to do that with paper books.
Obviously it can't be done that quickly with real books, but I don't require that kind of instant gratification. Plus were the book in request beloved to me, I'd want a real printed version of it.
(e.g. Communist China, most Islamic countries)
Those countries have so far found electronic things more easily controlled. That's not my opinion, to date it is fact. Maybe this will not always be true, but China for example has found that when people have money they are much more likely to turn a blind eye to the human rights and other abuses of their government.
"By poor I thought you meant poor quality, not having no money. The technology will allow more bad writers to cheaply self-publish their bad novels."
Yes, fair enough.
When I travel, I want with me at minimum a copy of all the books I have written (20 + titles), plus other source material, guides, handbooks etc. Plus I want a copy of the Baghavad Gita which itself weighs more than three kindles. I might want to carry some poetry, too. Plus the books I'm working on, all in text form for both backup and rereading while travelling. I use all of them when travelling more than a day. Very simply, with the kindle you have the option, with the paper books you must choose what you leave at home. I can't see why this is a bad thing.
There is no such thing as free shipping from Amazon if you live in Italy. Custom fees are absurd and random. And not all months I have 50-100 dollars of disposable income to spend on books, so getting them for free (out of copyright books) or cheap (fictionwise) is a blessing.
Lucky you who have a large house. My home is small (remember, I'm poor) and I don't have space for more shelves. Freeing some space for paintings would be great. Ebooks are letting me do that, or at least not make the situation any worse. I have already given out all my encyclopedias since I'm on wikipedia or the Britannica all the time when I need info.
All the other points of discussion stem from the poor= bad misunderstanding, so I think we agree that a good but pennyless writer should be allowed to make a buck out of his creations without anyone telling him what is fit for print and whatsnot, and ebooks make this process much easier.
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