Utopian Pessimist Calls on Radical Tech to Save Economy, article/interview.
Peter Thiel: "People take it for granted that their retirement funds can earn 8.5 percent a year. That’s what their financial planners tell them. And sure, you look back over the past 100 years, the stock market has generally gone up 6 to 8 percent a year. But in a larger historical perspective, that kind of growth is exceptional."
Thanks, Peter! I've said something similar in my money article. Given risk, inflation, etc, you can't expect the near-ten-percent growth that everybody likes to talk about as a god-given right. In fact I think that if you are risk-averse, you should be happy with any significant growth at all after inflation.
And I do think that the past couple of years have proven that it's prudent to be risk-aversive! Even great banks can fail spectacularly. So if you have capital, spread it over at least three banks, and put a bit in cash in your home, and quite a bit in gold bullion (not paper gold, actual coins like Krugerands) in a safe place.
A limited quantity of gold is an interesting addition to an investment portfolio, as a kind of insurance. It's worth noting that gold bars are cheaper than coins. Collectable coins are unnecessarily expensive, but krugerrands, maple leafs, eagles, etc. are fine if you don't want everything in bars.
ReplyDeleteYeah.
ReplyDeleteHere in UK, one is apparently advised to buy the Britannia coins, because for some years now, since they are considered legal tender here, if one has gains when selling them, the gains are tax-free. This is not true of foreign coins, or bars.
I don't know if similar laws exist in other countries.
Our local advisor, in the US, is suggesting 5% as a resonable goal.
ReplyDeleteBefore inflation, yes, I think that's more like it. Although right now I can't find any place which will give anywhere near it, here. (In Denmark you can right now get around 3% if you have a lot of money.)
ReplyDeleteGold has been pushed a lot lately, and as a number of financial wizards agree - gold is only worth what a small number of people will pay for it.
ReplyDeleteSilver is actually more rare, and more expensive to mine than gold.
And then there's tin...
Peter Thiel's call to save the economy is commendable but a bit silly.
ReplyDeleteEconomy as we know it can not be “saved”. It will run its course – a couple more years still – after which it will be replaced with a new system that has nothing to do with money, or even with the concept of exchange.
Both Robb and TTL have good points, but I think they will not hold, due simply to human nature. That changes only verrrrry slowly, if at all.
ReplyDeleteI think they will not hold, due simply to human nature. That changes only verrrrry slowly ...
ReplyDeleteSlow yes, but the change is already underway. You yourself have alluded to it in this here blog of yours.
Humanity is about the go through its biggest shift in recorded history.
I've thought so too, for many years, and it's true on some levels, but I've changed my view a little bit, now I think that the major changes, at least for many generations yet, will happen under the surface in the spiritual depths, and for individuals. For a superficial society view (the impression you'll get by reading newspapers), I think humanity will still be war-like and selfish for a very long time yet.
ReplyDeleteRobb, do you have some good resources (sites/books) about precious metals to recommend?
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